The Iranian nuclear deal is also a wild card.
“With the Iran deal people are aware there is more supply coming so all impetus for a price correction higher has gone”, said Hans van Cleef, senior energy economist at ABN Amro in Amsterdam. For the same period, Platts analysts estimated a decrease of 1.8 million barrels in crude inventories. Iran has been storing excess oil on supertankers in the Persian Gulf for the last 2.5 years, as more vigorous restrictions on its oil sales have deterred potential buyers.
Since Iran has the fourth-largest proven crude oil reserves, everyone’s wondering what Iran’s re-entry on the global market means. We expect sanctions relief by the first quarter of 2016 (again, assuming domestic opposition in the United States and Iran is overcome), allowing Iran to renew exports.
The Market Vectors Oil Services ETF (NYSEMKT: OIH) traded down about 0.7% as well, at $33.55 in a 52-week range of $31.51 to $57.99. Details of the condition of Iran’s production infrastructure are sketchy, but with limited investment as sanctions have been increased it is likely that only a portion of this capacity can be brought back on-line without material investment, it said.
That could be bad news for Israel as it hopes to continue developing its own gas fields. Despite the lower rig count, USA production remains near record highs since USA shale producers have to produce oil.
The most optimistic scenario, put forward by the Iranians themselves, sees a rapid ramp-up in output to about 4 million barrels per day (bpd), which in turn would lead to at least an additional 1 million bpd being available for export.
A glut of oil is blamed for the price drop. Normally, if refiners need oil a few months in advance, it does not make sense to leave the stuff in the ground, rather then pay financing and storage costs.
A troubled Greek economy was in part behind factors pushing the European economy into recession during the last global financial crisis. In fact, crude oil stockpiles haven’t been this high in 30 years! IPAA also voiced its support for legislation authored by Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee Chairman Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) and Senator Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.), which seeks to lift the outdated ban on oil exports.
After Iran was banned from selling oil to Europe in 2012, Russian Federation pounced on the market. It has to go somewhere, even when prices are low.
Brent oil headed for the longest run of weekly declines since January as ample inventories and an accord to ease sanctions on Iran suggested global markets will remain oversupplied.